Posted by jonathlewis · 2026-10-10 01:33:03 UTC
The call ran out of time and the remainder was marked out at the expiry close.
Outcome
Graded against Binance 5m klines (USDT pair).
Modeled outcome. This is a graded prediction, not proof that a trade was executed or that money was made. How grading works
What is the logic behind this ETH short?
Written by the trader before the outcome was known, and never edited since.
Shorting $ETH at 2491.77 with tight stop above 2504.50, targeting 2430.** Setup: Bullish continuation divergence at 50 EMA, trending higher since Oct '21; significant supply zone + trendl
Thesis at publication
The longer case, also locked at publication.
shorting $eth at 2491.77, trendline confluence retest coincides with 50 ema at 2491.5, rsi(62) prints hidden divergence hinting at momentum shift. stop at 2553.82 invalidates thesis, target 1 at 2398.69 capturers potential 12% downside.
Market context
What was true around ETH when this call was published.
Among active calls posted on TradeLiveX at that moment, 100% of 1 open ETH call from 1 trader were long.
7 graded calls, 0% closed above breakeven, mean -0.98R. Frozen as of the post — it is not recomputed.
Across all 59 graded ETH calls on TradeLiveX from 49 traders, 39% closed above breakeven with a mean of -0.11R.
Discussion
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